Showing posts with label Talking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Talking. Show all posts

Saturday, September 17, 2011

RICHARD KOO: Even Talking About Long-Term Deficit Reduction Is Indecent And Irresponsible

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Richard KooIn his latest note, Nomura economist Richard Koo gives decent marks to Obama's jobs plan, but says it's ultimately kind of small, and that when the Tea Party is done hacking it up, it will only be left with fairly ineffective tax cuts.

Given that Koo is such an advocate of fiscal stimulus during a balance sheet recession, this is hardly surprising.

More interesting is where he takes issue with the faction of the pro-stimulus camp, who still ultimately argue that over the long-term we need deficit reduction.

Says Koo:

Arguing need for longer-term fiscal consolidation is irresponsible
The insistence that fiscal consolidation is necessary in the longer term is like the doctor who, faced with a patient who has just been admitted to the intensive care ward, repeatedly questions the patient about his ability to afford the treatment. This is both lacking in decency and irresponsible.

If the patient loses heart after learning the cost of the treatment, he may end up spending even longer in the hospital, leading to a larger final bill. Completely ignoring the policy duration effect of fiscal policy and constantly insisting on longer-term fiscal consolidation was what prolonged Japan’s recession.
For instance, it was because Japan’s policymakers refused to give up the medium-term fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary fiscal balance by 2011 that the government stumbled from fiscal stimulus to fiscal retrenchment and back again and, ultimately, was unable to meet its fiscal targets even once in the last 20 years.

That is why Japan’s recession lasted as long as it did and why the nation’s debt has risen to some 200% of GDP.

Awesome, fresh analysis.

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Monday, September 12, 2011

Talking To Your Teenage Girl About Finance

If you have a teen girl in your life, you're already all too familiar with how much she thinks about the future.

She’s probably spending a lot of time looking at colleges and career choices.

Has she given any thought to her financial future?

If that seems like too much responsibility too fast, it shouldn’t. Kids should start learning about smart money management in elementary school, and it’s not as complicated as it sounds.

Running a lemonade stand?

Sorting Monopoly money?

It all counts.

However, the high school years are an especially important time to review money management skills with your teen, because she’s close to the age when she can open her own bank account or apply for her first credit card.

Women lag behind men in financial literacy. If your teen girl's age is not enough of a reason for her to learn more about money, consider the unsettling financial literacy statistics for women. Regardless of race and socioeconomic status, women still lag behind men in their knowledge of personal finance and make less money than they do. The good news? They also make better financial choices when they learn money management skills from their families. That’s where you come in. And even if your teen doesn't dream of trading on Wall Street, she’s probably more interested in money than you might think. The recession has caused many more teens (both boys and girls) to become more interested in smart money management strategies.

She knows more than you think...but not enough. Charles Schwab conducts an annual Teens and Money Survey. In 2011, they polled more than 1,000 teens 16 to 18 years old. The results surprised many people, especially when they compared them to the 2007 survey. Many more teens reported interest in saving money and learning about it. Seventy-three percent said they learned about the importance of emergency savings from the recession, and 77 percent now consider themselves "big savers" instead of "big spenders." However, the surveys also show notable declines in financial literacy, especially for 18-year-olds. In 2011, only 32 percent said they knew how credit card interest rates and fees work, down from 43 percent, and 39 percent knew how to balance a checkbook or check the accuracy of a bank statement, down from 64 percent.

Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president of Schwab Community Services, believes that the recession has made more young people realize they don't know as much about finance as they thought. If you’re wondering why they aren’t teaching this stuff in school, it’s time to check and see if your teen’s high school even offers an economics class. According to the National Council for Economic Education, as of 2007, only 17 states require high school students to take an economics class to graduate, and only 7 require a class in personal finance.

Get her a bank account (if you haven’t already). Approximately half of teens already have a bank account or student credit card. With proper guidance, a debit card is an excellent way for your teen girl to practice managing her finances. If she doesn’t have a bank account, get her one. Many banks, including Wells Fargo and Union Bank, offer checking accounts for teens 13 and older; you’ll just have to co-sign. Check with your local bank or credit union to see if they offer similar programs. Try to choose a “teen account” to get the flexibility your teen is likely to need. These are less likely to require a minimum balance of $1,500 (thank goodness), and may even automatically convert to a regular savings account when your teen turns 18. Use the same discretion as you would when opening a bank account for yourself. You both will learn more by doing research together.

Encourage her to get involved. Your teen girl will learn so much more about money management by working on projects of her own. If she’s so inclined, encourage her to get involved in a larger organization, whether it’s through school, church, a local club, or a national club. Below are two of many national organizations that promote financial literacy for girls.

Girls Inc. Economic Literacy Program. Girls Inc. provides girl-centered programing for girls ages 6 to 18, and one of their core components is their economic literacy program. The Equal Earners, Savvy Spenders program is for girls ages 12 to 14, and the Futures and Options program is for girls ages 15 to 18.

Girls Scouts USA. Those yummy Girl Scout cookies are more than just a fundraising tool; they’re also a key part of the Girl Scout financial literacy curriculum. During cookie season, the girls are actively involved in all the business aspects of the cookie business, including marketing strategies, budgeting, and bookkeeping.

This post originally appeared at U.S. News and World Report.


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Friday, September 2, 2011

Here's The Chart Everyone Is Talking About That Says Unemployment Will Surge

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An chart published yesterday by Lance Roberts at Street Talk Live is getting a lot of attention. The chart shows the STA Composite Employment Index (an index of the employment components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, seven different regional Federal Reserve manufacturing indexes, and the National Federation of Independent Business survey) versus jobless claims.

Whenever the STA composite drops to 5 or less, as it just did, the economy has been in recession and unemployment soars.

By now this charts isn't even that controversial. The White House projected unemployment at 9% through 2012, while Goldman predicts a rise to 9.25% and JPMorgan sees 9.5%.

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