An chart published yesterday by Lance Roberts at Street Talk Live is getting a lot of attention. The chart shows the STA Composite Employment Index (an index of the employment components of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, seven different regional Federal Reserve manufacturing indexes, and the National Federation of Independent Business survey) versus jobless claims.
Whenever the STA composite drops to 5 or less, as it just did, the economy has been in recession and unemployment soars.
By now this charts isn't even that controversial. The White House projected unemployment at 9% through 2012, while Goldman predicts a rise to 9.25% and JPMorgan sees 9.5%.
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