REPORT: China Made A 'Secret Offer To Save The Euro'

Yeah, we've heard this rumor a billion times, so why not once more?

The Sunday Times (London) is reporting (behind a paywall) that China made an offer to inject oodles of money into Europe.

Gerry Davies at ForexLive summarizes it in a sentence: "Quotes sources close to G20 talks as saying China is willing to pump billions into the euro zone by buying infrastructure assets.  Report also says Chinese banks would increase purchases of euro zone sovereign debt."

Again, we've heard this tons of times, so grain of salt, etc.

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Report: Manny Ramirez Arrested In Florida After Alleged Domestic Incident

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Former baseball star Manny Ramirez has been arrested in Florida.

He was taken into custody after an alleged domestic dispute with his wife, according to TMZ.

More coming as information becomes available...

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Goldman: Now There's Sizable UPSIDE To Q3 GDP After That Strong Trade Report

Surprise!

Goldman might hike its Q3 GDP report after this morning's trade deficit number.

Here's the (somewhat abridged) note:

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BOTTOM LINE: Trade report points to sizable upside risks to our 1% forecast for Q3 GDP growth. However, the cyclical signal from the report was arguably less positive. Jobless claims rose slightly.

KEY NUMBERS:

Trade balance -$44.8bn in July vs. GS -$51.0bn, median forecast -$51.0bn.

Initial claims 414k in week ending September 3 vs. median forecast 405k.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The US trade balance narrowed significantly more than expected in July, to -$44.8bn from -$51.6bn previously. The improvement reflected a sharp rebound in real export volumes. Real goods exports rose by 4.9% (month-over-month), reversing declines over the previous two months. In contrast, real goods imports fell by 0.2%, following a decline of 0.7% in June. Real goods imports have been essentially unchanged this year. A rebound in the motor vehicle sector after supply chain-related disruptions earlier this year appears to be affecting trade flows: nominal exports of vehicles rose by 12% and nominal imports of vehicles gained 15%.

2. The July trade report is a major positive from a GDP accounting perspective, and we now see significant upside risks to our forecast of 1% for Q3 (quarter-over-quarter, annualized). However, the cyclical signal from today's data is arguably less positive, due to temporary support from the recovery in the auto sector and weakness in real imports.

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Everything Is Down Ahead Of The Big Jobs Report

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Following yesterday's losses on Wall Street, Asian markets are mostly in the red. The Nikkei is down 1.2% and the Hang Seng is down 1.8%.

Europe looks even worse, with the Dax off 2.5% and the CAC 40 off 2.3%.

Dow futures are down 83 points. Banks are some of the lowest stocks, with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and JP Morgan among others off over 3% following news of a wave of mortgage lawsuits by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The BLS Jobs Report comes out at 8:30 and represents one of the most significant datapoints of the month.

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The Jobs Report Catch-22

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Markets face some kind of catch-22 this morning regarding the jobs report.

In one scenario stocks will go up no matter what. A good jobs report signals a stable economy and money rushes in. A bad jobs report forces the Fed to come in with guns blazing, and money rushes in.

In another scenario stocks will go down no matter what. A good jobs report blocks significant easing by the Fed and people sell. A bad jobs report signals a crashing economy and people sell.

First Empire Asset Management's Michael Obuchowski tells Morning Money: "We are in a very odd place right now. Nobody really knows how this number is going to come out. There has been so much uncertainty the last month. It could really come in anywhere and get plausibly explained away... Even if the number is very low the market reaction may be surprisingly positive given that it would be perceived as forcing Bernanke to do something more aggressive."

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JOBS PREVIEW: Another Weak Report

Calculated Risk is a leading finance and economics blog written by Bill McBride

The BLS will release the August Employment Situation Summary at 8:30 AM ET. Bloomberg is showing the consensus is for an increase of 67,000 payroll jobs in August, and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 9.1%.

Once again estimates all over the place, including more whispers of a negative headline number. This isn't surprising since the economic data for August was very weak - especially during the first couple weeks of the month as the shock of a possible U.S. government default rattled consumer and business confidence.

The BLS survey reference week includes the 12th of the month, and the 12th fell on a Friday in August - at the end of the 2nd full week and just after the economic freeze due to the D.C. debate. So even with slightly less worrisome economic reports towards the end of the month, it is possible that the headline number could be below consensus or even negative.

An added wrinkle was the labor dispute at Verizon. I've seen several estimates, but the Verizon dispute (since settled) probably reduced employment by 45,000 in August (these will be added back in September).

So these two factors, 1) a reference period right after a significant shock, and 2) the Verizon labor dispute, suggest a weak employment report.

Here is a summary of recent data:

• The ADP employment report showed an increase of 91,000 private sector payroll jobs in August. Of course ADP hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report. Also note that government payrolls have been shrinking by about 30,000 each month. The ADP does use the same reference week as the BLS, and this would suggest around 60,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added.

• Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged about 410,000 per week in August, down slightly from the 412,000 average in July.

• The ISM manufacturing employment index decreased to 51.8%, down from 53.5% in July. Based on a historical correlation between the ISM index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, this reading suggests a decline of about 10,000 private payroll jobs for manufacturing in August. Note: The ISM non-manufacturing index for August will be released next Tuesday.

• The final July Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index decreased to 55.7 from 63.7 in July. This is frequently coincident with changes in the labor market, but also strongly related to gasoline prices and other factors. This was probably impacted by the debt ceiling debate, but in general this would suggest a weak labor market.

• And on the unemployment rate from Gallup: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up in August

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 9.1% at the end of August -- up from 8.8% at the end of July.

These data further confirm Gallup's mid-month prediction that the August unemployment rate that the government will report Friday will be higher than the 9.1% it reported in July -- barring another sizable decline in the U.S. workforce or an unusual seasonal adjustment.

NOTE: The Gallup poll results are Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), so use with caution. Usually the NSA unemployment rate declines in August, so this would suggest an increase in the unemployment rate.

Because of the reference period following so soon after an economic shock, and also because of the Verizon labor dispute, I'll take the "under" on the number of jobs added (less than 67,000). I'll also take the over on the unemployment rate (I expect higher than 9.1%).

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UK Minister Accidentally Reveals To The Cameras A Controversial Report On Afghanistan

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Britain's ruthless paparazzi just photographed another top-secret document as Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell walked out of a meeting.

The Daily Mail has more:

Andrew Mitchell was photographed clutching a confidential briefing paper saying Hamid Karzai's decision to step down would improve the country's prospects 'very significantly'.

In a humiliating blunder the International Development Secretary inadvertently displayed the file, marked 'Protect – Policy', as he left a meeting at No?10.

Daily Mail also has photos.

Previously assistant commissioner Bob Quick was photographed with sensitive terror documents, as have other UK politicians.

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Be Prepared For A Disastrous ISM Manufacturing Report

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If the “whisper number” for this week’s ISM Manufacturing report is correct then we can expect a disastrous report.  According to LPL Financial the regional manufacturing reports are consistent with a contracting ISM figure:

Based on weakness in various regional ISM and Federal Reserve manufacturing sentiment surveys already released for August (Philly Fed, Empire State manufacturing, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed), the consensus expects the August reading on the ISM to dip below 50 (to 48.5), from the 50.9 reading in July. The so-called “whisper number” among traders (who often informally have their own forecasts for key economic data and events that differs from the consensus estimate culled from economists) is probably closer to 44.0 or 45.0. Thus, expectations for ISM are quite low. A reading below 50 on the ISM has historically corresponded with contraction in the manufacturing sector, while a reading about 50 suggests an expanding manufacturing sector. The last time the ISM was below 50 was in July 2009, the first month of the current economic recovery.

They warn, however, that it’s unwise to overreact to the negative number.  As they show, it’s not unusual for the ISM to contract during an economic expansion:

As noted in Chart 1, it is not unusual to see the ISM to approach, and dip below, 50 in the midst of an economic expansion. The index dipped below 50 in the middle of the long 1982–1990 expansion and did several round trips above and below 50 in the 1991–2001 recovery, notably in 1995 and again in 1998. In the 2001–2007 expansion, the ISM dipped back toward the 50 level in 2004, before reaccelerating in 2005. More recently, we point out that manufacturing activity/output—vehicle production, industrial production, durable goods shipments and orders, manufacturing employment etc.,have held up much better than measures of manufacturing sentiment like the ISM and the regional Federal Reserve manufacturing indices.

As sustained reading of 42 or below indicates recession, and the ISM did get to that level in both the 1991 and 2001 recessions. It got as low as 33.3 at the worst of the 2007–2009 Great Recession.

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Here Comes The Challenger Jobs Report...

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U.S. ecommerce spending still growing at a double-digit clip: report

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Posted 09 August 2011 15:45pm by Patricio Robles with 0 comments

Online retail in the United States is what most of us would consider a 'mature market', but that doesn't mean that its days of double-digit growth are behind it.

According to comScore, online retail spending hit $37.5bn in the second quarter of 2011, up from just under $33bn in the second quarter of 2010. That marks a 14% year-over-year jump.

As has been typical in past years, sales in the second quarter of the year are actually lower than sales in the first quarter, as consumers settle into a post-holiday shopping season pattern.

But this year's 14% second quarter year-over-year increase is notable for two reasons:

It's the largest Q2 increase since 2007, when spending rose 23%. 2007, of course, was the year before the global economy became unhinged. Thanks to the economic downturn, online retail spending actually had negative growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the second and third quarters of 2009.In absolute dollar terms, online retail sales hit an all-time second quarter high this year.

So what can we glean from this? Clearly, the market for online retail in the United States still has quite a bit of momentum.

Tanking global stock markets could hint that another recession is a possibility. That wouldn't be welcome news for a global economy that has already been bruised and battered quite a bit in the past few years.

But even if the global economy slips again, comScore's data hints that online retail has plenty of room to grow, and while it isn't immune from the rest of the economy, the long-term trajectory will help the market snap back and reach greater heights once it rebounds.

Copyright © 2011 E-consultancy.com Limited. All rights reserved. This material is for personal use only. Use of this website constitutes acceptance of the Econsultancy User Agreement and Privacy Policy.

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Travel shoppers react badly to Facebook Like buttons: report

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Posted 18 August 2011 10:59am by Graham Charlton with 0 comments

Consumers on travel sites had an overwhelmingly negative reaction to Facebook 'Like' buttons, seeing this as a unnecessary distraction, according to a travel usability study. 

The study from Usabilia used 800 participants and looked at the user experience on airline, hotel and travel comparison websites. 

Here are just a few highlights from the report, as well as a couple of infographics based on the data...

Social media can work very well on travel sites, but much depends on the context. For example, Hyatt links to its YouTube channel so users can see videos of hotel rooms and facilities before they book. 

The addition of reviews from sites like TripAdvisor can also be incredibly useful for consumers, and makes perfect sense for travel firms, as users are just going to head there anyway. 

However, the context is all important, and asking consumers to 'Like' a page during the search and booking process may not be the best approach. 

According to the report: 

Participants strongly disliked the buttons and stated they “really hate the pushy appearance of a company asking for an endorsement” or “begging” a user to ‘Like’ their company or brand without any bene?t to the user. 

A better solution would be to include 'like' buttons in follow up emails or surveys. If customers have enjoyed their journey or the hotel, then they will be predisposed to hitting the button.

Also, some incentive such as a discount on future bookings may provide more of a reason for people to click. 

This is a task that should be easy for users to complete, and all airlines need to do is provide a clear link from the homepage. This was a 'one-click test'. 

The infographic below shows the time taken to find boarding passes on the various sites (click image for a larger version): 

Users were able to find the boarding pass (online check-in) link most easily and quickly on the Delta airlines website. All it takes is a nice clear link: 

Finding a boarding pass on the KLM website took longer: 

As the heatmap shows, several users failed to click the correct link. In fact, just 39% got the right link. The relative clutter of the KLM homepage compared to Delta's was one factor. 

The study tested first impressions of a hotel website's homepage, and the elements which convey trust. The logo and the brand awareness was the top factor, cited by 48% of participants.  

This infographic shows the importance of factors like clean design and social media (click for larger version): 

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Personalization and incentives the key to mobile ads: report

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Posted 12 August 2011 13:01pm by Patricio Robles with 2 comments

Mobile is potentially the holy grail of marketing. Billions of individuals around the world own a mobile phone, and for many, the mobile phone has become the most important, most frequently used communication tool.

With smartphone adoption soaring, marketers can increasingly reach mobile phone owners in compelling ways. But that doesn't mean mobile marketing is delivering ROI.

A recent survey conducted by Luth Research for Upstream, a mobile marketing solutions provider, may shine some light on how marketers can change that.

The conclusion that can be drawn from the survey: forget timing and location. When it comes to what mobile users want, these things matter far less than personalization and incentivization.

In other words, hitting consumers with offers that cater to their interests and for which they've opted in is far more effective than trying to find a magical formula for hitting them with an unsolicited message at the right place and time.

Just how much more effective? Amongst the 2,000 individuals Luth Research surveyed, approximately 60% preferred personalized offers. Only 17% and 14% favored promotions based on timing and location, respectively.

According to Assaf Baciu, Upstream's SVP of Product Management, "This data reinforces the very intimate, personal nature of consumers’ mobile devices, and the singular priority for mobile marketers to carefully manage and optimize their engagement and number of interactions with customers."

The importance of recognizing that the mobile phone is a very personal device cannot be understated. Recently, in discussing marketers' general unhappiness with mobile advertising ROI, I noted that as powerful as mobile advertising has the potential to be, "advertisers should keep in mind that the mobile is also a very personal device, making the potential to annoy far, far greater."

The good news is that marketers may find that success with mobile is relatively simple: limit interactions to those that were requested, and find ways to incentivize action. Such an approach works in other channels, so it's not a stretch to believe that it would work with the mobile channel as well.

Econsultancy has published a Mobile Marketing Buyer's Guide which is aimed at those who are investigating the market for mobile marketing platforms, with profiles of 14 leading suppliers and an analysis of market trends.

Additionally, the Customer Engagement Report covers the extent to which businesses are using the mobile channel. See also our Mobile Statistics Compendium for data, facts and charts relating to mobile.

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