Obama Administration Scales Back Economic Growth Projection, Remains More Optimistic Than Wall Street

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The White House Office of Management and Budget released its mid-session review (MSR) of the economy and the federal budget today — blaming volatility for a slower recovery.

Using data from June OMB predicted 3.3% GDP growth in 2012 and unemployment at 8.3 percent, but an "alternative" forecast that uses the latest data projects real GDP growth of 2.6% and the unemployment rate hovering at 9%. 

The numbers are roughly in-line with what the Congressional Budget Office projected last month — a forecast that was widely criticized as being too optimistic.

The projections far outpace those of Wall Street. Goldman Sachs is expecting just 2.1% GDP growth and 9.25% unemployment in 2012, while JP Morgan sees just 1.3% GDP growth and 9.5% unemployment.

Council of Economic Advisers Member Katharine Abraham said the alternative forecast, which includes the latest economic data, was included to reflect how the economic outlook has changed in the last month due to increased volatility in the markets.

Since Obama presented his budget in February, OMB says the debt ceiling bill and other legislation have saved $1.45 trillion from being added to the federal debt next year. But even with the additional $1.5 trillion to be cut by the "super committee" later this year, deficits over the next decade will rack up $5.76 trillion in debt — or $6.78 trillion if the Bush tax cuts on high income wage-earners are continued.

Office of Management and Budget Director Jacob Lew said, "The MSR largely confirms what we already knew — and what CBO already released — it underscores that we need to get back on a sustainable path, and that we need to invest in long-term economic growth and job creation."

Read the full Mid-Session Review here:

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This Hair Salon Doesn't Really Care If You Think Its Ad Is Offensive, But Apologizes Anyway

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A hair salon up in Edmonton, Alberta is getting railed on for a controversial ad depicting domestic violence, and its owner is now vigorously defending it (via copyranter).

Instead of pulling the ad and running for the hills, Fluid Salon owner Sarah Cameron fired a salvo back at her detractors.

Here's what she told the Edmonton Sun:

“It might strike a chord, but as the way our society and community is getting, we keep tailoring everything because everyone is getting so sensitive,” said Cameron. “Anyone who has a connection or a story behind anything can be upset or have an opinion. We are not trying to attack anyone.”

Cameron later added a note on the salon's website, which defends the ad, but also says that it will donate to a women's shelter. The ad is still up on Fluid's site.

There's also this conditional apology -- with a little lecture about domestic violence thrown in too:

"If survivors of abuse interpret this ad to make light of any abusive situation, we sincerely apologize, that was never our intent as there are people that worked on this campaign who are survivors of abuse. To the rest of you who this has so deeply affected, we truly hope you do something to help stop domestic violence. Truly honor the survivors that you are standing up for. Unfortunately boycotting a hair salon will not accomplish this."

That's certainly a different way to deal with a huge wave of negative PR. 

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Here's How Normal People Really Feel About Netflix's Price Hike

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Netflix is raising its prices for existing customers today, so make sure you check your account.

The unlimited streaming plus one DVD plan now costs $15.98 a month, up from $9.99. Alternatively, customers can get either unlimited streaming or one DVD for $7.99 a month.

The price increase was announced back in July and went in effect for new customers immediately. Existing subscribers had until the end of August before changing their plan.

Will this price hike drive customers away? Or does Netflix have the market in such a choke-hold that it doesn't matter? Watch below to see what people really think.

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Russia Finally Decides To Back Libyan Rebels After Criticizing NATO For Months

Fred Wier is a correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor.

Russia has been one of the loudest critics of NATO's air war against forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi over the past six months.

But on Thursday Moscow suddenly pushed the mute button on its criticism, joined a Paris conference of some 60 nations aimed at consolidating support for the victorious anti-Qaddafi insurgents, and surprised many by extending immediate official recognition to Libya's rebels as the country's only legitimate government.

"The Russian Federation recognizes the Transitional National Council of Libya as the ruling authority and notes the program of reforms announced by it, which envisions developing a new constitution, holding general elections and forming a government," the foreign ministry said in a terse statement posted on its website Thursday.

In recent weeks Moscow had urged the rebels to seek a negotiated settlement with Mr. Qaddafi, and President Dmitry Medvedev suggested earlier this week that Russia might withhold official recognition from the TNC until it demonstrated an ability to unite Libyans and control the country's whole territory.

But the foreign ministry statement offered a small, diplomatically-worded hint on the reasons for Russia's swift about-face: "We presume that the contracts previously concluded by the Russian Federation and Libya, and the other mutual obligations of the parties continue in effect in relations between the two states and will be carried out in good faith," it said.

In plain terms, Russia has economic interests to protect – $10 billion worth.

These include about $4 billion in arms contracts that were negotiated with Qaddafi, including a $1 billion deal to supply anti-missile systems that was shut down by sanctions when the war began. There is also a $3 billion contract for the state-owned Russian Railroads company to build a high speed rail link between the Libyan cities of Sirte and Benghazi, and another $3 billion or so in oil and gas related contracts signed by Qaddafi with Russian state companies such as Gazprom and Tatneft.

Experts say that by dumping Qaddafi, with whom Russia has long enjoyed good relations, Moscow is only acknowledging the inevitable. But as nations gather in Paris to consider Libya's way forward, the backroom scramble over economic contracts, past and future, is already underway.

"Yes, Russia's recognized the (rebel) government, what else could it do?" says Boris Kagarlitsky, director of the independent Institute of Globalization and Social Movements in Moscow.

"This drama is reaching the final curtain, and until today the Russian Foreign Ministry has been in a kind of paralysis. So, at last they understood that if they continue waiting, everyone will move on without Russia," Mr. Kagarlitsky says.

Some analysts suggest the imminent rebel victory in Libya may politically benefit Mr. Medvedev in his increasingly fierce but still undeclared competition with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for the establishment nomination in Russian presidential elections, now barely six months off.

Medvedev has consistently been gentler than Mr. Putin in expressing Moscow's criticism of NATO for "going beyond" the UN Security Council's Libya resolution – which authorized the use of force to protect Libyan civilians – by using airpower to help the rebels overthrow Qaddafi. At one point Medvedev publicly chastised Putin for referring to the NATO action as a "crusade."

Analysts say that the Kremlin's fast footwork on Libya may cause momentary embarrassment, but no lasting pain in Moscow.

"Russia's relations with Qaddafi were never based on love, but were all about mutual pragmatic interest," says Irina Zvigelskaya, an expert with the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow.

Now, she says, there is a worry that the "Libyan provisional government may give economic preferences to Western companies, because it was the West that supported them directly. ..."

"But now's the right time to acknowledge the realities on the ground. We had pragmatic relations in the past, so there is reason to hope that they can be restored in future," she says.

This post originally appeared at The Christian Science Monitor.

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Obama Requests Joint Session Of Congress To Present Jobs Plan; Same Night As GOP Debate

President Barack Obama sent a letter to Speaker of the House John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid requesting a Joint Session of Congress on September 7th at 8pm to present his economic growth plan to the nation.

Obama writes that it is his intention "to lay out a series of bipartisan proposals that the Congress can take immediately to continue to rebuild the American economy by strengthening small businesses, helping Americans get back to work, and putting more money in the paychecks of the Middle Class and working Americans, while still reducing our deficit and getting our fiscal house in order."

Obama's announcement conflicts with a long-scheduled debate between the Republican presidential candidates at the Reagan Library sponsored by NBC and POLITICO.

Asked whether the White House chose the date to coincide with the GOP presidential debate, White House Press Secretary said "No, of course not."

Carney added that the primary focus of the speech will be "the immediate need for job creation," but added that Obama would also discuss deficit reduction and the growing federal debt.

House and Senate lawmakers must pass a "concurrent resolution" authorizing the joint session of Congress — a procedural formality.

Obama's letter:

Dear Mr. Speaker: (Dear Mr. Leader:)
Our Nation faces unprecedented economic challenges, and millions of hardworking Americans continue to look for jobs. As I have traveled across our country this summer and spoken with our fellow Americans, I have heard a consistent message: Washington needs to put aside politics and start making decisions based on what is best for our country and not what is best for each of our parties in order to grow the economy and create jobs. We must answer this call.

Therefore, I respectfully request the opportunity to address a Joint Session of Congress on September 7, 2011, at 8:00 p.m. It is my intention to lay out a series of bipartisan proposals that the Congress can take immediately to continue to rebuild the American economy by strengthening small businesses, helping Americans get back to work, and putting more money in the paychecks of the Middle Class and working Americans, while still reducing our deficit and getting our fiscal house in order. It is our responsibility to find bipartisan solutions to help grow our economy, and if we are willing to put country before party, I am confident we can do just that.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,

Barack Obama

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New Obama Economist Alan Krueger Thinks We Don't Need Unions Anymore

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As Neil Munro points out, the cases where incoming Obama economist Alan Krueger agrees with Democratic orthodoxy–the cases the Republican National Committee is emphasizing–aren’t as intriguing as the instances where he’s disagreed.

My favorite so far is this 1992 paper on unionism, which reviews surveys of union and non-union workers and concludes that the decline in union membership between 1977 and 1991 resulted from a “decline in demand for unionization” especially a decline in the percentage of nonunion workers who “would vote for union representation.”

And why the decline in demand?

Our brief analysis suggests that nonunion workers are more likely to report being satisfied with their jobs in 1984 and 1992 than in 1977. … Another possibility is that … the services unions provide are no longer perceived as valuable by nonunion workers …. [E.A.]

Now I’m confused. 

Ezra Klein assured me it was all due to heavy-handed and illegal tactics by union-busting employers. … P.S.:  Since then, of course, much-publicized private-sector union organizing efforts have reversed this trend. You could probably write the same paper today. …

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A Fellow Golfer Is 'Disgusted' That Tiger Woods Has Had His Swing Destroyed By His Instructor

Rocco Mediate had some strong words for Tiger Woods and his swing coach Sean Foley yesterday.

"I love the way he plays, but I'm disgusted with what's going on with him because it's sad for our game," he told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Mediate says golf is simply better off, financially and otherwise, when Tiger Woods is back at the top.

"It's fantastic all these other kids are winning, but they're not Tiger Woods," he said.

Mediate also claimed that Foley has given Tiger a faulty swing.

"The physical motion is wrong," he said, "Sean knows some stuff, but what's going on with Tiger is not correct."

Mediate went toe-to-toe with Woods at the U.S. Open in 2008, getting beaten in a 19-hole playoff despite the fact that Tiger had a broken leg and a knee injury. Now, he has some advice for Tiger's coach.

"If it was me (as Woods' instructor), I would say to Tiger, 'Look, dude, I'm not helping you. You're getting worse. You've broken down three times and you've had 57 knee surgeries. It's not happening.' "

His swing isn't the only thing that has been destroyed... Check out what lead to Tiger's downfall >

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