Showing posts with label Apple. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Apple. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Guess How Much Each Apple Store Costs (AAPL, MSFT)

Between $8.5 and $10 million.

And that's just for the physical stores -- not including the leases, the inventory, or the site selection.

That's according to Horace Dediu at Asymco, who ran the numbers today.

He looked at Apple's spend on "leasehold improvements" over the last six years, which amounted to $1.9 billion, then divided them by the 220 stores opened. He came up with an average of $8.5 million, but it's been increasing lately, so $10 million seemed more likely.

His point: if Microsoft (or, someday, Google) wants to match Apple's footprint, it will have to spend $2 billion just to open the same type and number of stores.

But unlike Apple, which sells hardware at a heavy per-unit markup, Microsoft makes much less money per item sold in its stores, so will have a harder time recovering those costs. Maybe that's why Microsoft has been so slow to roll out its stores, although it now says it will build 75 new stores over the next three years.

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Sunday, February 12, 2012

THE APPLE INVESTOR: Apple Has 5% Of Workforce Working On Chips For Post-PC Products (AAPL)

The Apple Investor is a daily report from SAI. Sign up here to receive it by email.

semiconductorAAPL Rockets With Market
Stocks are rocking Wednesday as investors process Slovakia's deal expand the euro zone rescue fund. Shares of AAPL are up big ahead of earnings next week, recovering from recent weakness. Catalysts include fiscal fourth quarter earnings release on Tuesday, October 18 at 5:00 pm ET; upgrade cycle and conversion to the iPhone 4S and response to the free iPhone 3GS; update to the iPad; continued growth of the Mac business line; mobile adoption in China and emerging markets; iCloud / iOS 5 rollout and adoption; the continued evolution of Apple TV; and platforms such as mobile advertising (iAd), books / publishing and social (Ping). Shares of Apple trade at 10.2x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities).

Gene Munster Says His Fourth Quarter iPhone Estimate Of 25M Might Be Too Low (Barron's)
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster tells investors that the iPhone 3GS could be the springboard for iPhone 4S purchases, estimating that 18.8 million users of the older model, or about 68%, “are likely to upgrade to the iPhone 4S.” According to his proprietary survey, 94% of iPhone users say they intend to buy another iPhone as their next phone purchase, an “annuity” for Apple. As a result, his estimate of 25 million iPhone units to be shipped in calendar fourth quarter of this year may be too low.

The Real Reason Why There's No iPhone 5 (Asymco)
It's all coming together. Most iPhone 4 owners are still bound by the 2-year contracts they had to enter into when they bought the iPhone 4, so they'll be less likely to now upgrade. So the 4S isn't aimed at these folks. It's aimed at the other three categories of iPhone 4S buyers:

Pre-iPhone 4 iPhone users (~70 million of them)Non-smartphone users (1+ billion, who can now get a 3GS for free, if price is an issue)Non-iPhone smartphone users (Blackberry, Android, Nokia)

The release of the forthcoming iPhone 5, meanwhile, would likely be timed to appeal directly to the ~70 million iPhone 4 owners who will just then be starting to come off their two-year contracts. Sure, relative to expectations the iPhone 4S launch was a disappointment, but otherwise it appears to have been typically brilliant.

iPad Dominates Internet Traffic In The Tablet World (comScore)
Smartphones and tablets are driving an increasing amount of Internet traffic, according to the numbers from the latest comScore report. Including the iPad which accounts for 97% of all tablet Internet traffic. And the iPad drives a slightly higher share of mobile Internet traffic than the iPhone does, 46.8% versus 42.6%, respectively. Despite these Apple-centric numbers, the report mentions that Android is still the most popular smartphone platform, controlling 43.7%

Apple Has 5% Of Its Workforce Working On Chips (TechCrunch)
“Steve Jobs told me he has 1,000 engineers working on chips. Getting low power and smaller is the key to everything.” Apple started building its own chip design team in 2009 because Intel and AMD were still stuck in the PC era. But many figured it was a few hundred people at most, not 5% of Apple’s non-retail workforce. Jobs left Apple knowing that a string of post-PC products will be introduced in the years ahead. When he resigned he said, “I believe Apple’s brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it.” Now we get to see what he meant by that.

Studios Want To Get People To Start Buying DVDs Again, Offering Movies In The Cloud (Reuters)
In a move to encourage customers to buy movies rather than rent or stream, studios are planning to launch cloud-based services to compete with digital media rental outlets, like Apple's iCloud-enhanced iTunes. The move is meant to encourage movie ownership of physical DVDs. Sony, Warner Bros. and Universal will rely on UltraViolet, a new digital rights authentication and cloud-based licensing system that allows users to stream or download a digital copy of the movie they purchased on disc, from the studios' remote servers.

How Tim Cook Differentiated Himself From Steve Jobs At His First Product Launch
(The New York Times)

Tim Cook is a sales and operations guru. At the recent iPhone 4S launch, he let a trio of Apple senior vice presidents with stronger product credentials (Eddy Cue, Scott Forstall and Philip Schiller) show off Apple’s new toys. What he did was avoid seeming Steve-like. Van Baker, an analyst at Gartner said that "one of the things Tim did was to, in essence, put a stake in the ground and say I’m not Steve, don’t expect me to be Steve."

The Seven Reasons Why Apple Should Not Pay A Dividend (Seeking Alpha)
Here are the reasons why a dividend is a bad idea:

Small investors can't reinvestThe tax issueApple employment is on the riseNo future benefit issueIt's a growth stock / companyDividend money now goes straight to EPSExtra work / cost for the board

Apple should do what it does best. Focus on creating high quality products that the consumer loves and is willing to buy repeatedly. Keep growing, and ignore the whole dividend idea.


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Sunday, February 5, 2012

The One Huge Reason Why Amazon Will Not Beat Apple (AMZN, AAPL)

My Macbook is dying.

Yesterday, the "M" stopped working. My wife took it to the local Apple Store — it's only about a half mile away, as an Apple Store always seems to be — and they determined that the keyboard needed to be replaced. It's already on order.

Then today, it stopped taking a charge.

I took it back to the Apple Store. Turns out that the problem isn't the charger, which works fine on other Macs. It's probably the I/O board, or worse, the motherboard.

I left it at the Genius Bar. They'll fix it by next week, or let me know if it can't be fixed.

With only one computer left in the house, and my wife needing to do some work this evening, I was reduced to using the Galaxy Tab that Google gave me at their I/O conference earlier this year.

I say "reduced" because that's how it always feels. I can usually read my Twitter stream and email pretty well, but beyond that it's awful.

Tonight, the first video link I clicked went to a "you need Flash" message. The next led me to a YouTube video that promptly froze up (which happens frequently). The Facebook app has always been and remains a total disaster — it has no way to do things you expect to be able to do on the Web or iPhone version (like respond to messages), and it hangs or crashes with cryptic error messages almost every single session.

And typing on the keyboard requires Everest-sized amounts of patience — the auto-correct is horrible, but turning it off means you have to remember to capitalize every "i" (funny how lazy you get after a couple years of iPhone use).

I have a lot of patience for technology — I'm old enough to have mucked about with config.sys and Regedit.

But tablets are for consumers. This is a totally unsatisfactory experience. If I'd bought this thing, where would I turn for help? Google? Samsung? Facebook? Best Buy, or wherever I bought it?

In short, who takes responsibility for this mess?

So fast forward a couple of months. I've got my new Kindle Fire. It's awesome — for a while. Then something goes wrong. I can't figure out how to fix it.

Where do I turn for help?

Am I supposed to box it up and send it back to Amazon? That's a hassle. Will they really help me? How fast? What happens if I'm not satisfied? (My only experience with Amazon's customer service has been abysmal — they shipped the wrong Christmas gift and gave me endless hassle when I tried to get them to replace it with the right one. Hopefully they've learned something from Tony Hsieh.)

With an iPad, there's no question what to do. Take it to the Apple Store where you bought it. If it's under warranty, they'll fix it or replace it for free. If it's not, they'll try to fix it, but you'll have to pay. If they can't fix it, well, there's a whole new line of shiny gadgets for you to buy right there.

Amazon will sell a lot of Kindles this holiday season. It has a lot of expertise in online services. It knows how to do fulfillment. With a couple Kindle revisions out of the way, it knows how to do hardware and software pretty well. The price is right.

But it is still no threat to Apple because Apple has proven that it takes full responsibility for its products. It can do this because it controls the entire experience, from the moment you walk in to make a purchase to the last dying breath of the gadget it sold you.

As far as the other Android tablets go, yeah, they're really truly dead (at least until Google turns Motorola into its dedicated hardware division). Good riddance to bad rubbish.


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Now, Wall Street's In A Full-On Food-Fight About Whether Apple Cut iPad Orders

Food fight

Not surprisingly, yesterday's JP Morgan report that Apple had suddenly cut Q4 iPad orders by 25% has prompted other Wall Street analysts to frantically respond.

Bloomberg has a good round-up.

JP Morgan's own Apple analyst, for example, Mark Moskowitz, who says "Apple is fine."

(The report was published by JP Morgan's Asia analyst, who based the conclusion on research done on Apple's supply-chain partners.)

Gene Munster thinks Apple is just moving some production to Brazil.

Barclays also rejected the report, suggesting that the cuts might be for components, not iPads:

“We disagree with any talk of a shipment slowdown,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote in a report. “The numbers being circulated Monday might be related to components and not to actual iPad 2 shipments, in our view. Components checks (are) not a good proxy for actual iPad product shipments.”

Susquehanna analyst Chris Caso dismissed the call as "misleading," and said the orders had been "pulled-in," not cancelled--meaning that Apple actually moved the production into the third quarter to be sure to be able to keep up with holiday demand. (This is perhaps the most bullish interpretation of all).

But FBR's Craig Berger came rushing to JP Morgan's defense, saying he's hearing exactly the same thing:

Craig Berger, with FBR Capital Markets in New York, wrote a report saying his view was “largely consistent” with the research from JPMorgan’s Asia team on cuts to orders from Apple to iPad suppliers. The cut to fourth-quarter iPad production may reflect Apple being more cautious on overall global demand given recent market turbulence, and discounting some iPad growth in China, he wrote.

“For the iPad, 3Q11 builds were cut by 5%, while 4Q11 production estimates were cut by 24%, an incremental negative for Apple related supply chain participants,” Berger wrote.

IPad builds were cut by 24 percent in the fourth quarter from 17 million to 13 million, as iPad 2 WiFi builds were revised lower, and as ‘iPad 2 Plus’ production was removed from the forecast due to “display manufacturing challenges,” Berger wrote.

So there you have it.

For what it's worth, barring further startling stories out of Asia, I suspect the world's attention will now focus almost exclusively on the iPhone 5 launch next month.


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Saturday, February 4, 2012

Apple Launches Foursquare-Like "Find My Friends" App (AAPL)

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Apple is launching a new app with iOS 5 called "Find My Friends."

The app will let you see where your friends are on a Google map. It's very similar to Foursquare's map feature.

Apple says the privacy controls are easy to manage.

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Sunday, October 2, 2011

The World's Most Important Apple Blogger Is Pretty Impressed With Amazon's New Kindles (AAPL, AMZN)

The Kindle Fire’s slogan says it all: “All the content. Ultra-fast web browsing.” That’s the best sort of marketing message: simple, appealing, and true. Well, we’ll see how fast their new cloud-boosted Silk browser is in practice, but the content part is undeniably true. If you buy a Kindle Fire, you’ll have no trouble finding and buying books, movies, and apps. The deal for Amazon Prime members is good too: unlimited streaming of movies and TV shows. (Streaming, I believe, means it won’t work offline, but Amazon also sells and rents movies and TV shows for offline viewing.)

It’s all about the content, though. That’s the difference that other tablet makers missed. Motorola, Samsung, RIM — they seem to be chasing the iPad on specs, building the best tablet they can manage at the same starting price of around $500. But they have no clear message telling people what you can do with them.

Back in June, Harry McCracken laid out the key question to ask of any tablet: “Why should somebody buy this instead of an iPad?” The Kindle Fire is interesting because it’s the first one with a good answer: it’s much cheaper, Amazon offers a digital content ecosystem that rivals Apple’s (fewer apps, more books), and millions of people already use and enjoy Kindle hardware. The e-ink Kindles are to the Kindle Fire what the music-playing iPods were to the iPhone, and what the iPhone was to the iPad — traction in the mass market based on trust and loyalty.

Amazon built an alternative to the iPad, rather than a direct competitor. It’s a different market segment. As Steve Jobs explained back in 2010 at the introduction of the original iPad, there’s unexplored territory between smartphones and laptops.

Apple and Amazon are approaching this tablet territory from opposing sides. The iPad takes it on from the high end. It’s the best possible device in that price range from the world’s best maker of devices. The Kindle Fire takes it on from the low end. The iPad is a credible laptop replacement for many people — and with iCloud and another year or two of hardware improvements, that’s going to be true for more and more people. The Kindle Fire is a laptop replacement for almost no one. It’s a peripheral, not a second computer — and it’s priced accordingly. You can get a Kindle Fire and a new top-of-the-line e-ink Kindle Touch for less than the price of an iPad. It’s a very different take.

The iPad and Kindle Fire are emblematic of their makers. Apple’s primary business is selling devices for a healthy profit, and they back that up with a side business of selling digital content for those devices. Amazon’s primary business is as a retailer, including as a retailer of digital content. They back that up with a side business of low-cost digital devices that are optimized for on-the-fly purchasing of anything and everything Amazon sells. The Kindles are to Amazon what the printed catalog was to Sears a century ago.

Attack from a position of strength. Build on your previous successes. That’s what Apple does. That’s what Amazon is doing here. The other guys — the Samsungs, HTCs, Motorolas, RIMs — can’t match Apple’s hardware design, don’t even try to match Apple in terms of original and differentiated software, and struggle to match Apple’s prices because they don’t have the economy of scale advantages Apple does. Those guys can’t match Amazon either, because they have no content to sell. Amazon can give away the razor because they’re already in the business of selling blades. The other guys don’t even have blades to sell.

I doubt there’s any profit whatsoever in a $199 Kindle Fire. The same goes for all Kindle hardware. And with the Fire in particular, I wouldn’t be surprised if Amazon is taking a small per-unit loss, confident that they’ll make it up with the sale of content. With the iPod a decade ago, prices did come down over time, but for the most part Apple concentrated on making rapid improvements to the device at the same price points, year-over-year. With the Kindle, Amazon has improved the hardware each year, but their concentration has been on reducing the price.

Jeff Bezos comes right out and says it in the Kindle-promoting letter to customers now on the Amazon homepage:1

There are two types of companies: those that work hard to charge customers more, and those that work hard to charge customers less. Both approaches can work. We are firmly in the second camp.

Like I said, Apple tends to keep price points the same and improve the device year-over-year. It’s more like Apple works hard to keep charging customers the same amount, but Bezos’s point rings true.

Last year Amazon tried something new, with an option to pay less for a Kindle that displays “special offers”. They’re ads, but they never interrupt reading — they’re only shown on the home screen and screensaver. Today, they’ve flipped the marketing around. Instead of paying less in exchange for looking at these ads, the “special offer” Kindles are now the default, and you can pay a $30-50 premium for a Kindle without them. ($30 on the low-end non-Touch model, $40 for Touch, $50 (!) for Kindle Keyboard.)

Amazon has always catered to price-sensitive customers, and I suspect they know their audience well. And Amazon is a data-driven company. I’ll bet the $40 premium is based on how much money they expect to make from the ads they sell and products they promote via the special offers. Last year the special offer Kindle was only $25 less; the data must show that the special offers are worth more than $25 per Kindle to Amazon.

I got a Kindle about a year ago, and I use it much more than I expected to. I like reading on e-ink. I look at glowing backlit displays all day, every day. I’ve been obsessed with computers my whole life. I love glowing screens. When I’m away from my computer for days, I’m happy when I sit down in front of it. There’s a certain feeling I get when I use any computer — a Mac, an iPhone, an iPad, my TiVo, even an ATM or the credit card slider at the supermarket. Cool, a computer.

I read books on my iPad, too, but reading on the iPad doesn’t have the same mental-mode-switching effect. When I read with the iPad I feel like I’m doing the same basic thing I do as I read on my Mac all day long — just with a different device. It’s more pleasant, in many ways, and definitely more personal. But I’m still in the same mental mode — fully aware that anything and everything is just a few taps and few seconds away.

E-ink feels peaceful to me. The Kindle doesn’t feel like a computer. It feels — not to the touch but to the eyes and mind — like a crudely-typeset and slightly smudgily-printed paper book. That’s a good thing. Battery life is un-computer-like as well: Amazon measures e-ink Kindle battery life in months, and they’re not joking. It’s a surprise when the Kindle actually needs a charge. I was a doubter until I owned one, but now I’m convinced that e-ink readers have tremendous value even in the post-iPad world.

The worst thing about my year-old Kindle is, well, everything other than the screen. All the buttons are crap, and a huge chunk of the front of the device is devoted to an unpleasant keyboard that I almost never use. The buttons that really matter, the ones for page turning, aren’t good. They’re too small and have a bad feel.

My seven-year-old son refuses to believe me that my Kindle is not broken, because its screen doesn’t respond to touches. He’s not far off base. If I go a week or longer without using it, when I pick it up, I often find myself swiping to turn the first page.

The new Kindle Touch seems exactly right. No more needless keyboard. No more junky buttons for page-turning. A touchscreen. Everything good about last year’s Kindle remains, everything bad about last year’s Kindle is gone. And it’s an ounce lighter and the price has gone down.

I don’t get the new just-plain-Kindle, though. Yes, it’s $20 cheaper than the Wi-Fi Kindle Touch ($79 vs. $99) but is $20 a big enough difference to justify the extra complexity of the product line? I’m not sure why the keyboard models remain, either, unless there really are some people who use the keyboard frequently. It’d be a much clearer product line with just two models: Kindle Touch for e-ink, Kindle Fire for tablet computing.

The new just-plain Kindle is available now, worldwide. But the Kindle Fire and Kindle Touch aren’t scheduled to ship until mid-to-late-November. Why announce now, 45 days ahead? Easy: because people are already making holiday gift decisions.

Production must be tight on the Fire and Touch models, as well, because they’re only being offered in the U.S. for now. The only new Kindle for sale outside the U.S. is the $79 non-touch model.


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Saturday, September 17, 2011

14 Old School Apple Games You Can Play In Your Browser Right Now (AAPL)

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We recently came across VirtualApple.org, an astounding site that catalogs retro games that were once commercially available on Apple computers. But it doesn't end there.

By way of clever coding, you can play all these games right inside your browser.

How do they do it? They take advantage of the ActiveGS plugin, a free extension for your browser that emulates old Apple computers.

And since all these old game titles are either freeware, abandonware, or public domain, there aren't any legalities to stand between you and some nostalgic gaming fun.

Here are some of our favorites from back in the day that you can play in your browser right now.

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

Microsoft Follows Apple, Bans Flash From Windows 8 Tablet Software (MSFT, ADBE, AAPL)

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Looks like Microsoft is following Apple once again.

The Web browser in the tablet interface of Windows 8 won't support plug-ins, according to a post yesterday by IE leader Dean Hachamovich.

That means it won't run Flash.

The reasons are the same reasons Apple has refused to support Flash on the Web browsers on the iPad and iPhone. As Hachamovich wrote:

Running Metro style IE plug-in free improves battery life as well as security, reliability, and privacy for consumers. Plug-ins were important early on in the web’s history. But the web has come a long way since then with HTML5. Providing compatibility with legacy plug-in technologies would detract from, rather than improve, the consumer experience of browsing in the Metro style UI. 

That does not mean that Flash is out of Internet Explorer or Windows 8 entirely.

Windows 8 will be a two-in-one operating system. It will include the Metro touch-screen interface for tablets or other touch devices (Microsoft is talking up touch-enabled monitors, for instance). That's what Microsoft is showing off at its Build developer conference this week.

But every copy of Windows will ALSO include a more traditional interface that's meant to be used with a keyboard and mouse. It will look a lot like Windows 7, only updated.

The version of IE in that interface will still support plug-ins, presumably including Flash.

Still, it's another blow for Adobe: Microsoft has basically agreed with Apple that Flash has no place in the post-PC future.

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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Yes, Microsoft Did Change The World More Than Apple (MSFT, AAPL)

Image: AP</P>A new poll in France says 7 out of 10 people think Microsoft did more to change the world than Apple. We think we would have similar results in other countries, if only because a lot more people (still!) use Microsoft products than Apple products, at least for personal computing which is (still!) the most important part of computing. </P><P>It's hard to see a mention of Steve Jobs without the worlds

But in terms of sheer impact on the world? Microsoft wins, hands down. 

Microsoft gave the world two things:

Microsoft was the first real software company.Microsoft did put a PC on every desk and in every home. 

At the end of the day, it's that last part that matters. By shifting the value in computing to software, Microsoft commoditized computing hardware and made computing accessible to the masses. If this isn't one of the most significant events in history, nothing is.

Now, some people will say that Microsoft did this by copying Apple's innovations like the graphical user interface. Whatever. First of all, Apple famously copied those from Xerox PARC. Great artists steal. Second of all, by any meaning of the word, the person who changes the world isn't the one who comes up with the idea, it's the one who executes on it, and 1980s Apple failed to execute (a lesson well learned by Apple under Steve Jobs 2.0). 

The original Macintosh did show where the future of computing was headed, but it was also a commercial failure. 1980s Apple failed to understand the value of software, in particular third party software, which was lacking in the Macintosh. (This writer's mother bought two computers in the mid-1980s: the first Macintosh and the first IBM PC. There was a lot more software for the PC. So she kept buying PCs, to this day--though she has an iPhone.)

1984 Mac commercialMicrosoft, being a software company, built an operating system platform that let thousands of others innovate which, along with Moore's Law, made PCs cheaper and more valuable every year which meant more and more people could get access to them, in a vicious circle.

Being the first big, viable software company also meant Microsoft cleared the way for thousands of other software innovators, when it was in no way obvious at the start that a company could be viable making just software.

The hardware may have been ugly, and the software clunky (a big reason why Windows is buggy is because of Microsoft's amazing 20 year commitment to backwards compatibility, which makes PC software a cohesive environment, a tremendous service to users and the world, for which it gets no credit. With less software to support, Apple can afford to wipe the slate clean every ten years, a strength born of weakness.), but it was the software that millions of people used, and loved.

Nowadays Apple is so huge and efficient that it can afford to make the best products at the best prices. But when the personal computer revolution happened, the Macintosh was a Mercedes and MS-DOS was the Model T. The Model T might have been ugly, clunky and cheap, but being cheap it also changed the lives of millions and transformed the world in a way that the early auto pioneers, amazing and necessary though they were, didn't.  

Now, Apple may yet get its revenge. The mobile computing revolution, with smartphones and tablets, will be at least as big as the desktop computing revolution, and Apple is seriously taking the lead. Android has a good chance of disrupting iOS, but Apple also has a great chance of remaining the dominant mobile platform. Maybe 20 years from now we'll look back and see Apple had an impact at least as big as Microsoft in the 1980s. 

But if we're looking now, Microsoft clearly had a bigger impact on the world than Apple. The fact that we all love Apple products and they're gorgeous doesn't change the fact that the company that actually made the world realize the magic of software, and made computing accessible to almost everyone on the planet, is Microsoft. 

Related: My Apple Story ?


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Thursday, September 8, 2011

Now Is The Perfect Time For Apple To Finally Kill The iPod -- Here's Why (AAPL)

  x You have successfully emailed the post. Before we get started and before you start lambasting us in the comments, just know that we love the iPod. It changed the way we carry music around in a very fundamental way.

Think back to the pre-iPod days. Most MP3 players could barely hold a single album. The Discman was king.

And the iPod will never truly die. It will always live on as an app or feature in Apple's iDevices. That's a very, very good thing.

Now, 10 years after the iPod was first introduced, we think it's time for it to finally die. With the iPhone and iPad, Apple has moved past the classic iPod. In fact, it hasn't changed much over the last few years. 

We agree with this excellent argument for killing the iPod written on the personal blog VintageZen. But we have some additional thoughts of our own.

First of all, we don't think Apple should push an iPhone "lite" as an iPod Touch replacement. Instead, it should be a 3G-enabled iPod Touch.

We hate to say it, but it's time for the iPod to go.

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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Apple Wants To Hire Two Security Guards To Prevent Losing Another iPhone Prototype (AAPL)

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Following last week's case of the missing iPhone 5, Apple is looking for two product security guards that will make sure future Apple prototypes don't fall into the wrong hands.

9to5 Mac says there's a new job posting from Apple requesting two experienced security guards. The job description says the guards are responsible "for overseeing the protection of, and managing risks to, Apple’s unreleased products and related intellectual property."

Reports from the lost iPhone 5 prototype last week say Apple employees entered the home of the man they suspected of having the device.

Don't Miss: More iPhone 5 rumors >

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Apple Wants To Hire Two Security Guards To Prevent Losing Another iPhone Prototype (AAPL)

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Following last week's case of the missing iPhone 5, Apple is looking for two product security guards that will make sure future Apple prototypes don't fall into the wrong hands.

9to5 Mac says there's a new job posting from Apple requesting two experienced security guards. The job description says the guards are responsible "for overseeing the protection of, and managing risks to, Apple’s unreleased products and related intellectual property."

Reports from the lost iPhone 5 prototype last week say Apple employees entered the home of the man they suspected of having the device.

Don't Miss: More iPhone 5 rumors >

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Is Apple About To Take Another Shot At Social? (AAPL)

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Apple could be taking another stab at social, according to some hidden iOS code uncovered by 9to5Mac.

This time it's called "Find My Friends." Clues in the current iOS source code seem to hint that Apple has been working on a new social network for a long time.

We're looking forward to the Twitter integration in iOS 5, but Apple's other attempts at social have been pretty lame so far.

Game Center was unremarkable and Ping was just bad news.

If and when it comes out for the public, it will likely rely heavily on iCloud. But because the code heavily references MobileMe, there's a chance it's already defunct and we're just seeing scraps left behind.

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Here's What The Apple TV Will Be Like (AAPL)

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steve jobs itv apple tvImage: Illustration: Ellis Hamburger

The drumbeat is growing: a lot of people think Apple is going to introduce a TV set in 2012. 

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster reiterated his call for a 2012 Apple TV, and technology grandee Jean-Louis Gassée takes a stab at figuring out what it'll be like: 

Imagine a true plug-and-play experience. One set with only two wires: power and the cable TV coax. Turn it on, assert your Apple ID credentials and you’re in business. The program guide looks good and is easy to navigate; pay channels are just a click and a password away. The TV runs apps, from games to FaceTime and Skype, it “just works’’ with your other iDevices and also acts as a Wi-Fi base station using the cable provider’s Internet service.

One problem is that the Apple TV would have to support the many cable systems. The TV would have to either only support a few operators, or be complex and prone to bugs. Cable operators killed the CableCARD, which was supposed to plug into your TV and replace your set-top box, because it would be too complex to service. Apple would have to either rely on the cable guys to play nice and support it or, Gassée speculates, create its own "Apple Geek Squad" that would come to your house and fix it. 

The other problem is that people don't upgrade their TVs as often as they do their other consumer electronics. Moore's Law ensures that computers and phones quickly become obsolete, and you have a reason to spring for a new computer and phone every year or every two years. Once a family springs for a big, great TV, they won't renew so often.

But you could have made the same argument with phones: carriers have different systems, have competing requirements, and Apple worked that out over time. The phone business is commoditized, with wafer-thin margins, and Apple came up with must-have devices that allowed it to get carriers to play nice and (thanks to subsidies) sell incredibly powerful phones.

As Munster says, "Apple will do to TV manufacturers what it did to phone makers with the iPhone."

Let's just hope they don't call it an iTV ? 

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Saturday, September 3, 2011

Apple: Android Actually Started Here (AAPL, GOOG)

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Apple says that Andy Rubin may have gotten one of the ideas used in Android from way back when he worked at Apple.

Apple is suing HTC for patent infringement in the International Trade Court, alleging that HTC's Android phones infringe on its patents.

Previously, HTC made an argument that Android founder Andy Rubin started working on mobile platforms in the mid-1990s when he was with General Magic.

Not so, says Apple. In a court filing uncovered by Florian Mueller, Apple says:

Android and Mr. Rubin's relevant background does not start, as HTC would like the Commission to believe, with his work at General Magic or Danger in the mid-1990s. In reality, as the evidence revealed at the hearing, Mr. Rubin began his career at Apple in the early 1990s and worked as a low-level engineer specifically reporting to the inventors of the '263 [realtime API] patent at the exact time their invention was being conceived and developed. [...] It is thus no wonder that the infringing Android platform used the claimed subsystem approach of the '263 patent that allows for flexibility of design and enables the platform to be "highly customizable and expandable" as HTC touts.

So far, Apple hasn't sued Google directly -- it's only gone after Android resellers.

But if Apple sues Google over this patent, Mueller believes it could result in an injunction forcing Google to stop shipping the operating system.

See also: Google Stole These Ideas To Make Android A Success, According To Patent Lawsuits.

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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Advertising And The Future Of Apple

After Steve Jobs stepped down as CEO of Apple last week, speculation about the company's future began immediately.The consensus seemed to be that Jobs built a strong culture, hired smart people, and taught a way of thinking that will serve Apple well in the future. The story line went like this-- while Jobs will be missed, he is no longer essential to the future of the company and it will go on brilliantly without him.I don't buy this for a second. Genius is non-transferable.Jobs hasn't just created better computers, he has created a world that nobody else could envision. He brought an artist's sensibility to a field previously populated by capable but tone-deaf engineers. He didn't just make beautiful looking hardware, he took what was a dead screen full of little green letters on a blue background and turned it into an astounding, enchanting world of graphics, music, and video that has become a central feature of contemporary life. He has made work more fun, knowledge more available, and entertainment more rewarding.Anyone who has had the pleasure of buying an Apple product knows the great aesthetic delight of turning it on for the first time and seeing the beauty that ensues. Even going to an Apple store is a completely unique and strangely arresting experience.On Friday, Apple became the world's largest company, surpassing ExxonMobil in market value. It will not simply evaporate. The most likely scenario is that Apple will continue to shine for a few years while the initiatives that Jobs started are still in the pipeline, and then slowly the company's radiance will start to dim. They will be successful and will continue to produce excellent products for a long time -- but the startling brilliance will slowly fade.Many successful creative enterprises turn out to be the extended shadow of one individual. My best guess is that Apple is such an enterprise.Interestingly, one of the first indications of whether Apple is capable of continuing its explosion of creative energy without Jobs at the helm may be found in its advertising. The product pipeline will take years to screw up. But the ad pipeline can be screwed up in no time.About a year from now, with Jobs in the background, the knuckleheads at Apple (there are knuckleheads everywhere) will have a chance to get their sweaty hands on the advertising.Jobs is a brilliant technology visionary. But let's not forget that he is also the best ad man of his generation. He is what you might call a "classicist." Apple advertising is simple. It is almost always product-focused (the product usually sits smack dab in the middle of a white page.) The TV spots for the iPad and iPhone are usually nothing more than simple but compelling product demonstrations.Here are some clues to look for in Apple's advertising that will indicate that dull hands are grabbing at the wheel:
1. Creeping Brandism: The Apple brand was built bottom-up. That is, the products defined the brand. Virtually every Apple ad was about a product, not  the brand (okay, there was "Think Different" but that didn't last.) Keep an eye out for the erosion of this discipline.
2. Agency change: Vapid marketing people relegated to the background all these years by Jobs' dominance may suddenly start flexing. They wouldn't dare contradict Jobs' legacy, but they could accomplish the same thing by undermining the agency.
3. The Tortured Logic of Account Planning: Look for ads about you the consumer instead of Apple products. Look for moronic online "engagement" gimmicks. Or look for social media pandering.
4. Complications: Part of the brilliance of Apple advertising has been its simplicity.  Keep an eye out for complicated ideas or ads with more than one product.
5. Media: Apple has used online media sparingly. The preponderance of its advertising has been conducted in traditional media -- TV, print, and outdoor. Watch to see if Apple suddenly starts going all trendy and new age in its media choices.
If you start seeing any of these signs coming out of Cupertino, sell your shares. Advertising will be an early indicator of whether people without vision and taste are moving in at Apple. It will be interesting to watch.

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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Apple Just Released iTunes Match Beta To Developers (AAPL)

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Apple released the beta version of iTunes Match, the service that lets you stream your tracks from the cloud, to developers tonight.

You must have an iOS developers account, which costs $99 per year, to access iTunes Match Beta.

iTunes Match gives you access to Apple's catalog of 18 million songs. It scans your computer's library, and matches the tracks you own to those iTunes has the rights to.

You can then stream those songs to any device -- iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad, or Apple TV -- without having to store them locally.

When the service goes live to the public, it'll cost $25 per year.

Tonight's beta release means we're getting closer to the public launch of iCloud and iOS 5. Those features will likely launch along with the iPhone 5.

Don't Miss: All the iPhone 5 rumors you could ever want >

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The Difference Between Microsoft And Apple (MSFT, AAPL)

  Microsoft showed off the upcoming improvements in the file explorer for Windows 8 on its blog this morning, and the post highlighted the main difference between Microsoft and Apple.

It's not just about complexity, which Apple hides and Microsoft defiantly does not. (As MG Siegler pointed out in this excellent graphic.)

More revealing is the fact that Microsoft collected data from hundreds of millions of users (anonymously) to figure out exactly how they use Windows Explorer today. Then, they analyzed this data in painstaking detail -- for instance:

The top 10 commands represent 81.8% of total usage. Additionally it shows us that people overwhelmingly use Explorer for core file management tasks - the top 7 commands (72.2% of usage) are all for managing/manipulating files.

And:

54.5% of commands are invoked using a right-click context menu, and another 32.2% are invoked using keyboard shortcuts (“Hotkey” above) while only 10.9% come from the Command bar, the most visible UI element in Explorer in Windows 7 and Vista.

They used this data to figure out where to start. The team is pretty proud because "The commands that make up 84% of what customers do in Explorer are now all available on this one tab."

Never mind that the rest of the tab is filled with icons that will be rarely, if ever, used.

Then, they asked customers what they wanted to see. "Customers have a lot of suggestions for how they’d like to see Explorer evolve."

This is exactly the opposite of Apple's approach.

From Steve Jobs:

It’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.

There's also:

You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new.

This approach has become so ingrained at Apple, they embedded the quote in one of the icons in OS X Lion.

And then there's this gem:

The only problem with Microsoft is they just have no taste. They have absolutely no taste.

So which approach is better?

The market will decide.

See also: The 13 Best Quotes By Steve Jobs.


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Monday, August 29, 2011

Apple Will Continue To Make Big Bets Under Tim Cook, And They'll Pay Off (AAPL)

While some have responded to Steve’s resignation as Apple CEO by recalling personal stories involving Steve or Apple, others have focused on how Apple’s culture will handle a different leader.  Let’s take a step back and reassess Apple’s current situation. 

Current Products

I have extreme confidence that Apple will successfully update its flagship products in the near-term. As I previously wrote, Apple’s start-up structure assures resources are allocated to a product in the months leading up to a refresh; breaking down the “walls” between executives and workers - the same walls that often destroy other technology companies.

Having executives involved in seemingly detailed and mundane aspects of a product is the difference between having a product be “magical” or “good”. Tim Cook will continue to hash out aggressive business contracts with Apple friends and foes. Apple’s expanding supply and distribution channels will continue to be run with the dedication and intelligence that have put competitors to shame.

As a prime example of how much confidence I have in Apple’s ability to execute in the near-term, I have no intention in lowering my forecasts for Mac, iPod, iPhone, or iPad sales in my AAPL earnings model following Steve’s resignation. 

Future Products 

Apple will continue to innovate and brainstorm ideas that will change the world.  While it is difficult to pinpoint why the iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been so successful, it is important for Apple to continue to make similar industry-changing strides.  

I think this is where Apple will face its first significant challenge with Steve no longer at the helm.  What makes Apple so great is its willingness to take abnormally large risks and essentially bet the farm on those risks.  

Apple is able to translate a big idea (big bet) into reality with very little friction and inefficiency. The biggest risk enters the equation on the demand side - whether consumers want the product. Steve made bets. Big ones. Will Tim be able, or willing, to take similar big risks?

At this time, I do think Tim is capable of such responsibility.  Tim isn’t some young gun who has been thrown into the game. Observing how the world has changed (and where it will go) is an art not a science, and while Steve mastered that art so successfully, Tim was in a perfect position to watch the master perfect his art, giving him a  significant  advantage over everyone else in Silicon Valley.  Apple will lose on some bets, but will still be able to strive to new heights if more is wagered on winning bets. 

Face of Apple

Apple is Steve and Steve is Apple and that will not change. However, there is now a debate as to who will become the new face of Apple or if Apple even needs a singular public representative given Apple’s size and power.  

I do think the entire Apple executive team will gain more exposure with some SVPs acquiring new affiliations with consumers. Forstall as Mr. iPhone and iPad,  Jony as Mr. Apple Design, Schiller as Mr. Apple Brand,  while Tim remains the “Big Dad”.  

Great brands create emotional connections between users and products.  People will want to connect with Apple and its leadership in new ways. When Apple is ready to unveil its next big thing, we will most likely have a few members of the Apple team explain why the world needs this new product, whereas up to now, only Steve has had the honor. 

AAPL

Concerning financials and other AAPL stock decisions, I would expect no significant changes or speed bumps with Tim as CEO.  In addition, an internal CEO promotion often results in minimal changes to prevailing capital philosophies concerning dividends and share buybacks.  

The Architect

At the end of the day, Steve built the foundation for a magnificent castle and Tim is a great architect. As I wrote back in December: “As long as most of the risk variables are monitored and marginalized to a certain extent by upper management (and Steve  Tim) - the consumer is left as the biggest risks. Apple can then rely on its brand power to turn the odds in its favor.”

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Sunday, August 28, 2011

Apple Will Decline After Steve Jobs, But...

Philip Greenspun is a semi-retired American computer scientist, educator, and early Internet entrepreneur who was a pioneer in developing online communities.

… but they would have declined (or at least slowed in growth) anyway.

A lot of the value in Apple has come from the ineptitude of other companies and the passion and willingness of early adopters to spend huge money. There are inherent limits to growth fueled by those two factors. For example, the early adopters with the greatest willingness to pay for smartphones (and associated service) have already purchased smartphones.

Now the big market is from people in emerging countries, such as China, and the average consumer in developed countries. The record companies were so poorly managed that they gave up 30 percent of their digital music revenue because they were too lazy to run their own Web site. What other industry is going to give Apple 30 percent of its revenue in exchange for Apple running a server?

So let’s not be too hard on the new Apple CEO (Tim Cook, who seems to be more experienced with logistics than product design). If revenue and profit growth flattens it might well have done the same under Steve Jobs. For Apple to justify a comparable market cap to Exxon’s (which owns oil wells, after all) would require a lot of things to go right over the next decade.

The current P/E ratio of 15 doesn’t look that high, but since Apple is a tech company that issues a lot of stock options they may end up diluting current investors so much that a public holder of a share of Apple stock may never receive his or her full $383 worth in dividends and capital gains.


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