STOCKS RALLY BUT FADE BIG TIME IN FINAL MINUTES: Here's What You Need To Know (SPY, DIA, QQQ, AA, PEP, , FCX, C, BAC, MS, JPM, LIZ, RIMM)

Sam Ro | Oct. 12, 2011, 4:00 PM | 773 |   x You have successfully emailed the post. Fear is fading out of the markets as the European picture becomes more clear.

First, the scoreboard:

Dow: +102, +0.9%
S&P 500: +12, +1.0%
NASDAQ: +21, +0.8%

And now, the top stories:

If you looked only at the major indices, you probably wouldn't have known earnings season kicked off on a disappointing note.  Alcoa reported earnings of 15 cents per share, sharply missing analysts' estimate of 22 cents per share.  The company painted a pretty bleak picture of Europe.However, Europe's picture may soon improve. Word out of Slovakia indicates that leaders will pass the EFSF expansion later this week.  Markets applauded this news sending US stocks higher.European markets closed on a high note as the euro surged against the dollar.As usual, US bank stocks benefited from the improving picture in Europe.  Citigroup and Bank of America both jumped.  Morgan Stanley gained 3%.  JP Morgan, which announces quarterly earnings Thursday morning, climbed 3%.In other earnings news, PepsiCo reported Q3 earnings just barely ahead of expecations as strong revenue more than offset higher costs.  Shares closed up 3%.Industrial and precious metals also booked big gains today, led by a 3% jump in copper prices. Miners Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoran saw shares rise 3% and 2%, respectively.Amidst the bull rally in risky assets, the Treasury had its worst 10-year note auction in nearly a year with the yield climbing to 2.27%.Another area of weakness was agricultural commodities, which reacted to a USDA report that indicated higher than expected supply. Wheat plunged by 6%, erasing most of yesterday's gains.FOMC minutes came out today.  During the September meeting, some members had favored more more quantitative easing, even suggesting expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.  The committee also cut its outlook for US GDP growth.Meanwhile, Research In Motion fell 2% as the company's BlackBerry network outages spread into North America.In other corporate news, Liz Claiborne announced it would be selling off its brands for $328 million.  Shares soared.Don't Miss: Nouriel Roubini's $1.2 Trillion Plan To Save The Entire WorldPlease follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
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Stocks Not Doing Anything, While Netflix Set A 52-Week Low (MOS, JNPR, WDC, NFLX, FSLR, JWN)

Stocks are modestly as the world awaits the EFSF vote from Slovakia.

Dow down 6 pts.

S&P 500 up 2 pts.

Nasdaq up 17 pts.

Netflix hit a 52-week low.  Citi cut earnings estimates on subscriber attrition.

Other losers on the S&P 500 include Nordstrom and First Solar, off 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively. The sell off in Nordstrom stock is likely profit-taking as the retailer is near its 52-week high of $52.15. First Solar shares have come under increasing pressure thanks to the collapse of Solyndra. The solar wafer producer set a new 52-week low this morning and is down 67% from the year's highs.

Leading on the plus side are Western Digital, Mosaic Companies, and Juniper Networks, trading up 5.2%, 5.0% and 3.8%, respectively. Bristol Myers Squibb, Ross Stores, and Cephalon are showing more modest gains, but their stocks are setting 52-week highs.

Commodities declined slightly on the COMEX, with gold December futures at $1,666 a troy ounce, off just $4.40. Copper saw the greatest, if still modest, fall among precious metals. December deliverables of the commodity are trading down seven cents, or 1.9%, to $3.30 per pound.

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China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Buys Financial Stocks As It Tries To Regain Investor Confidence

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Image: AP

Central Hujin Investment Ltd. a unit of China's sovereign wealth fund has bought shares of four Chinese state-owned banks according to government news agency Xinhua.

The four banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), Bank of China (BOC) and China Construction Bank (CCB). All shares were bought on the secondary market.

Beijing has clamped down on lending as it struggles to bring inflation within its 4% target. Tighter lending has created a near liquidity crisis, local government debt has mounted, PMI looks weak, and the stock market has been down this year. With a slowdown in the global economy and fears of a Chinese hard landing, many investors have fled China, and other emerging markets, for safe havens. 

The government already owns a majority of shares in the China's biggest banks. While it remains unclear whether it will continue to intervene, the government, through Hujin aims to stop the 30% decline in bank stocks in recent months, according to the Financial Times.

The move was aimed solely at restoring investor confidence. While the Shanghai Composite closed at its lowest level in over 2 years, bank stocks in Hong Kong spiked immediately on the news.

Don't Miss: Why Everyone Is Suddenly Freaking Out About China >

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Five Months Down For Stocks: Time For A Bounce?

Goodbye September!  The S&P 500 is sporting a healthy 10% decline for the year and nearly an 18% drop from the peak.  The recommendation to move primarily to cash and fixed income back in April has served us well.  So, what about October? 

October has been the month that has seen the end of bear markets more often than not.  Unfortunately those bear market endings generally consisted of very large declines.   The month of October this year is, unfortunately, laden with risks.   The government is still engaged in trench warfare which means little assistance from the Whitehouse.  The Fed has effectively thrown the towel in at this point with "Operation Twist" which will do little to bolster the economy or the financial markets.  The Greece/Europe standoff is quickly coming to a head and Greece will most likely have to default which will put tremendous pressure on the European economy.   Europe and China are slowing rapidly and it is a race to see whether it will be the US that drags the world in to a recession or vice versa.  As you can see there is more than enough systemic risk to disrupt the markets.   Unfortunately, we are going to plaster those systemic risks with a good solid coat of financial risks as the 3rd quarter earnings season kicks off.   Analysts estimates remain very high and earnings season could prove to be a disappointment with the slowing of corporate profits combined with a weakening of incomes and a despondent consumer.

Now for the stats.  September was the 5th negative month of returns in a row which has only happened 5 times previously.  The reason I point this out is twofold.

First, there have been numerous analysts pointing this fact out lately touting that this is the time to get back into stocks because of the rarity of 5 month negative return periods.   However, a look at the data tells us a potentially different story.  

If we average each of the 12 months following 5 months of negative declines and look at average monthly returns we find  that the better buying opportunity generally comes after a reflex bounce.  

This is assuming that September was the bottom. 

Which brings me to my second point.  What if September wasn't the bottom?

What these analysts don't tell you is what happens if October turns out to be a negative month as well?   There have been four 6 month periods of negative returns the markets since 1930.   After each 6 month period the market did indeed bounce.  Unfortunately, 3 out of 4 times those bounces let to brutal market declines with one of those 6 month periods bouncing before starting a slide into the 9 month long crash of 1974 which still holds the record.

Also, what is interesting is that after 6 months of negative returns a 3 month bounce occurred 3 out of 4 times which turned out to be a suckers rally.  The subsequent six months led to negative return and that second bottom, with the exception of 1974, was the better buying opportunity.

With the both a high level of financial and systemic risks in the market today combined with a lack of support from the Federal Reserve, the odds of a strong rebound from these levels looks questionable. 

If September turns out to be the bottom of the market then our technical indicators will signal to us a better time to wade cautiously back in to the risk pool.   However, if October turns out to be negative then most likely we have much more work to do before a better buying opportunity presents itself. 

Finally, if our economic models are correct and we are on the verge of a second recession then stocks do have further downside risk.  A reflexive rally is certainly possible BUT should be sold into.  This is the first rule of trading during negative market trends as we currently witness today.  During an average recessionary bear market stocks decline by 33% on average.  As stated previously, with the markets currently down around 18% from the peaks this year, this leaves roughly another painful 20% to go.  Of course, I did say "average" recession.  In the current economic environment my concern is that the next recession will be anything but "average". 

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Synthetic Equity: A Way To Buy Stocks Without Buying Stocks

So, it seems we can now rule out a bad bet on the Swiss franc.  From what we can tell, Adoboli appears to have made highly speculative equity trades, masked as synthetic equity trades, which would be no surprise because they came out of UBS's London-based Global Synthetic Equity department.

Synthetic Equity

There is more than one way for a portfolio manager to increase exposure to stocks, or equities.  The most obvious way is to just buy equities.

Another way is to take long positions in equity futures contracts.  Portfolio managers prefer this latter method because 1) transactions costs are lower when trading futures contracts and 2) the portfolio is able to preserve liquidity because the manager only has to maintain the futures exchange's margin requirement, which is much lower than the total dollar value of the securities underlying the futures contracts.

When constructing a generic synthetic equity position, the portfolio manager uses cash to buy risk-free bonds and takes a long position in equity futures contracts.  If the portfolio manager already has a position in risk-free bonds, she can just add the contracts.  This combination of bonds and futures replicates the performance of the equity without actually having an equity position.  Hence, synthetic equity.

Adobolu's Trades

According to UBS, Adobolu's trades appeared to combine equity futures and cash ETFs.  Cash ETFs are kind of like risk-free bonds.  As such, Adobolu's trades looked like synthetic equity positions, or relatively low risk bets on stock market movements.

However, UBS said the cash ETF positions were falsified.  So, rather than moving with the already volatile stock markets through synthetic equity positions, Adoboli was betting on the markets only through futures contracts, making movements in his actual portfolio much more volatile.

Questions Remain

Many questions remain, including how Adobolu was able to falsify his cash ETF positions.  But even if he actually had those cash ETF positions, it seems that Adobolu would have lost the $2.3 billion anyways because cash is not that volatile.

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Stocks Going Crazy, But Remember What Happened Yesterday...

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One hour to go, Dow up 180.

But remember what happened yesterday.

Major late-day selloff.

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Stocks Diving AGAIN After Fed Action, Dollar On The Rampage

  x You have successfully emailed the post. Yesterday stocks got destroyed after the Fed's announcement of Operation Twist, an announcement that obviously left a lot of market participants wanting.

Well the market's falling again.

All the big US indices are down over 1.3% at the moment.

Europe's getting smashed, naturally. Italy is off about 3%.

France is off 3.7%.

The only winner? Not gold. Not Swiss Franc. The dollar.

Not helping things: A fresh batch of bad economic news in both Europe and China. See here for more details on that.

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STOCKS MAKE GIGANTIC COMEBACK ON RIDICULOUS DAY OF NEWS: Here’s What You Need To Know

STOCKS MAKE GIGANTIC COMEBACK ON RIDICULOUS DAY OF NEWS: Here’s What You Need To Know Login With Facebook | Login With Twitter | Login | Register Money Game Home Tech Entertainment Wall Street Markets Strategy Sports Lifestyle Politics EuropeData Misc. Your Money Video Latest Your News Money Game Home Economy Markets Investing ETFs HiveTapePRContributors Follow us on Facebook and get updates from Money Game posted directly to your news feed 

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Email Zip STOCKS MAKE GIGANTIC COMEBACK ON RIDICULOUS DAY OF NEWS: Here’s What You Need To Know Joe Weisenthal | Sep. 13, 2011, 8:26 PM | 3,564 | 17 A A A   x Email Article From To Email Sent! You have successfully emailed the post.

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What a ridiculous day.

But first, the scoreboard:

Dow: +44.73
NASDAQ: +37.06
S&P 500: +10.60

And now, the top stories:

Yesterday was wild, as markets saw gigantic Europe-selling in the morning, followed by a huge comeback. Today was similar, except there were tons more headlines, and the entire seesaw took place before the market even opened.Things were briefly positive when the opening bell rang in Europe, as markets raced to catch up with yesterday's big rally. But things collapsed really quickly, as markets keyed off of a controversial column in the Wall Street Journal, citing an anonymous BNP Paribas executive saying that the bank had run out of dollar-funding options. French bank stocks, which have already been getting slammed on Greece fears/downgrade rumors got crushed for the second day in a row. BNP Paribas fell over 10% at one point. Not long after the article came out, the company came out and said it was still able to access dollar funding, and that put a floor on the market, which rebounded.Then in the early going, a rumor came via Reuters that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel were going to give a press conference on some matter related to Greece. One report even indicated that they were going to announce some sort of action. Stocks surged on that, moving from violently negative to significantly higher. And then not long after that, the rumor was denied! There would be no Merkel/Sarkozy press conference, just the possibility that Sarkozy might make some comments to the press later in the day -- certainly falling short fo any real action.But that wasn't it for European headlines. Later in the day it was reported (and confirmed!) that on Wednesday Merkel, Sarkozy, and Papandreou would hold an emergency call. It's not clear whether that's really good or bad, but at least it's definitely happening. In the early afternoon, there was a report about how Geithner would urge the Germans to expand the EFSF, but then later in the day that was denied. And finally, there was a rumor about how the Dutch Finance Minister had called a Greek default inevitable, but then that was denied, with the Dutch claiming that all they were doing was exploring the various options.Oh, and also, there are rumors about a bailout of Europe from the BRICs (possibly in coordination with each other!), but who knows. And remember that rumor from yesterday about China buying Italian bonds. Well it turns out that the only talks have been about China buying Italian industrial assets, not bonds.In terms of domestic news, it was mercifully pretty quiet. Shares of Best Buy got slammed to the tune of 6.3% after reporting bad earnings. There continued to be more jousting on the matter of the President's jobs bill, with Republicans getting a bit more aggressive in their opposition. Also: Late in the day, Harry Reid talked about introducing a new anti-China currency bill in the Senate, and that briefly seemed to rattle equities, though ultimately not for very long.In the end: We got a big rally, and are set up for more furious days ahead, with gigantic uncertainty.For more reading: Click here to see who gets crushed if Greek default s> Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
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600px wide (preview)400px wide (preview) 300px wide (preview) Joe Weisenthal Contact: e-mail: AIM: openfilerook Work Phone: 917-621-7438 SMS: 917-621-7438 Subscribe to his RSS feed | twitter feed Ask Joe a QuestionRecent PostsOne Really Good Sign For Th...Why The Rumored Brazil Bail...THAT WAS FAST: Now The Dutc... The Water Cooler
Receive email updates on new comments!cvszEmail17 Comments 0 22 Flag as Offensive free market user on Sep 13, 8:37 PM said: bernanke is competent..
http://seekingalpha.com/user/926530/instablog/full_index Reply 11 0 Flag as Offensive Beauchamp (URL) on Sep 13, 10:57 PM said: @free market user: Dude, you are a giant fucking asshole. Reply 14 0 Flag as Offensive ObaMao on Sep 13, 8:51 PM said: Yeah call it blow off peak in making to suck in the suckers in this RIGGED market. Reply 4 1 Flag as Offensive James on Sep 13, 10:56 PM said: @ObaMao: Screwed up day in news and the markets rally and why? Because FUCK YOU that's why!! Reply 1 0 Flag as Offensive Gorbachev on Sep 13, 11:13 PM said: @ObaMao: China plans to let its currency trade freely on international markets by 2015 [EPA]

China is shifting some of its massive foreign holdings into gold and away from the US dollar, undermining the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, accoding to a recently released WikiLeaks cable.

"They [the US and Europe] intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the US dollar or Euro," stated the 2009 cable, quoting Chinese Radio International. "China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold."

The cable is titled "China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone". Taken together with recent policy announcements from Chinese banking officials, it may signal moves by China to eventually replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Last week, European business officials announced that China plans to make its currency, the yuan, fully convertible for trading on international markets by 2015. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said the offshore market for the yuan is "developing faster than we had imagined" but there is no definitive timetable for making the currency fully convertible. Presently, the yuan cannot be easily converted into other currencies, because of government restrictions.

China's gold holdings are small compared to other major economies. It has 1,054 tonnes, the sixth-largest reserves in the world, according to data from the World Gold Council.

Dollar's dilemma

Buying gold and allowing the yuan to be traded freely would weaken the US dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency. The move would have major implications, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow money and to run perpetual trade and budget deficits.

"The US is used to having the position of having the key reserve currency, but others are eager to replace it," said Josh Aizenman, a professor of economics at the University of California and president of the International Economics and Finance Society.

As a reserve currency, the US dollar is the default for international transactions. If, for example, a South Korean company wants to buy wine from Chile, chances are they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, leading to greater demand. The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.

Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. "Any country that can finance its expenditures by printing money or selling bonds is essentially getting a free lunch," Aizenman told Al Jazeera.

With China's apparent change of heart, that "free lunch" now might come with a hefty tab. Given the massive US trade deficit, average Americans might be sent to the restaurant's kitchen to wash dishes if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency.

"China, until recently, was focusing on buying the US dollar through bonds," Aizeman said. Since the economic crisis, the US dollar has dropped compared to other major currencies, particularly the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Brazilian real. This leaves China in a bind, analysts said.

Currency reserves

In March 2011, China held $3.04tn US dollars in reserves, Xinhua news agenecy reported. It is the largest holder of US treasuries, or government debt, with $1.166tn as of June 30, 2011, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Thus, major devaluation of the dollar would hurt China, as it would be left holding wads of worthless paper.

"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100m, that's the bank's problem," American industrialist Jean Paul Getty once remarked, in a parable that sums up China's predicament.

"China is locked into a position where they cannot sell a big portion of their dollar reserves overnight without hurting themselves," Aizenman said. "It is too late for now to diversify rapidly the stock they have already accumulated."

The answer: Buy gold. Everyone seems to be doing it. The value of the glistening commodity, useless for most practical purposes, increased almost 400 per cent, from less than $500 an ounce in 2005 to about $1,900 in September.

"Gold has risen in value because of uncertainty in the world economy," said Mark Weisbrot, the co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research, a think-tank in Washington. "Normally, gold would rise due to high inflation. It is a store of value that increases if there is inflation. But in this case it is going up because nobody knows where else to put their money."

In the WikiLeaks cable, China alleged that "the US and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold", but neither Weisbrot or Aizenman think such a policy is taking place or even possible.

Presently, China places strict controls on its currency, limiting foreigners from doing business in the yuan or trading it on foreign exchange markets. That could change in the next five years, according to governor Xiaochuan's recent announcement.

By owning such large reserves of US currency, and through controlling the yuan, China can keep its currency lower than it would be if it floated freely. This makes Chinese exports cheaper.

The relationship, in which Chinese investment in US government bonds allows low interest rates for Americans to buy Chinese products, has worked well for the last 15 years. In 2010, the US ran a $273.1bn trade deficit with China.

"We pay our debts in dollars so we can print money to pay our international debts," Weisbrot told Al Jazeera. Because of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, the US "can run trade deficits indefinitely" while borrowing internationally without serious repercussions, giving the world's largest economy a "big advantage", he said.

If gold, the yuan, or a combination of other currencies replaced the dollar, the US would lose that advantage.
Without a replacement in the near term, nothing will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next five years at least. But nothing lasts forever. "When they [China] want the dollar to fall, they will let it," Weisbrot said. "The dollar will fall eventually but that could be a long time away."

The fate of the dollar notwithstanding, a separate WikiLeaks cable outlines some of the broader ambiguities of the world's most important economic relationship, or "ChinAmerica", as it has been dubbed by historian Niall Ferguson.

"No one in 1979 would have predicted that China would become the United States' most important relationship in thirty years," the cable stated. "No one today can predict with certainty where our relations with Beijing will be thirty years hence."

You can follow Chris Arsenault on Twitter: @AJEchris Reply 5 1 Flag as Offensive Jamstar on Sep 13, 8:53 PM said: Joe, check out the Max Keiser show from last night, he gave you a mention :) Reply 13 0 Flag as Offensive Skull & Bones on Sep 13, 9:02 PM said: The global Ponzi is almost up folks.....we're trading on fumes left in the tank. The rumors are being spread to buy enough time for an "organized" default in Greece.........whatever that means. The shorts might want to understand that Greece default announcement may very well trigger one hell of a "buy the news" rally in global markets.......you have been warned. Reply 12 0 Flag as Offensive AgMgr on Sep 13, 9:15 PM said: @Skull & Bones: The global Ponzi is almost up folks...Don't expect to hear from Joe what you really need to know. Reply 8 0 Flag as Offensive reagan on Sep 13, 9:21 PM said: perfect traders market.

but its all going to zero Reply 0 0 Flag as Offensive Yep on Sep 13, 11:48 PM said: @reagan: Zero or infinity ... probably both. Reply 1 0 Flag as Offensive slapshod on Sep 14, 12:19 AM said: @Yep: "probably both"

Exactly. It's like one of those absolute value compound inequalities where the value is everything but one specified point on the number line. In this case, that one point would represent normalcy and healthy macro conditions. Hyperinflation or deflationary implosion? Both are equally likely and we may see both in sequence or even (paradoxically) at the same time. One thing's for sure - this bird's goin down. Smoke em if ya got em, kids. Reply 0 7 Flag as Offensive soros on Sep 13, 9:30 PM said: All the comments are from bears. Love to see it. When it's supposed to go down and doesn't, it's going up.

I can't explain it. Just BTFD. Reply 1 0 Flag as Offensive IndianaJohn on Sep 13, 9:33 PM said: Them nice gummint mens save the ticker in time. Again. Reply 4 0 Flag as Offensive Beauchamp (URL) on Sep 13, 10:58 PM said: What's ridiculous is that there are fools out there who think everything is fine. We'll see how the idiots buying stocks today feel a year from now.

I'll give you a hint: poorer. Reply 0 0 Flag as Offensive RUBBISH! on Sep 14, 12:32 AM said: MARKETS WILL CRASH TOMORROW. Reply 0 0 Flag as Offensive WAKE UP AMERICA! on Sep 14, 12:34 AM said: THE END IS NIGH, YOUR OPTIMISM COULD ONLY SALVAGE BRITNEY SPEARS; BUT THIS IS OUT OF YOUR HANDS, THE BIG EUROPEAN MONSTER IS SICK; AND WITHOUT IT YOU ARE VULNERABLE, WEAK, AND STERILE... Reply 0 0 Flag as Offensive edonly (URL) on Sep 14, 1:05 AM said: MBT Shoes can be used for playing with your children, walking dog, shopping as well as doing exercise. These shoes are preferred by people who walk and stand a lot in the whole day. Reply Join the discussion with Business Insider
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Early Morning Selloff Gets Worse: Major Bank Stocks Getting Routed

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We mentioned this morning, that European markets were moving to the downside in early going.

Things have accelerated a bit since then.

Italy is now down about 2%.

Germany is down about 1.5%.

And US futures, which had been higher -- as investors held out (it seemed) some hope that the Obama jobs bill could get turned into reality -- have now gone negative.

The big losers are French banks. SocGen is off 7.3%. Natixis is off 4.33%.

As for the story: There's a ton of moving parts moving in Europe right now. The FT reports on ongoing strains in the bank funding market. There's a big G7 Weekend coming up, as well as the imminent Greek endgame. Finally, Lagarde is out with (yet) another speech calling on recapitaliszations of European banks.

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Stocks Are Actually Making A Really Big Rally Right Now

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Don't look at the number on your screen, showing the S&P down 1.4%.

Remember, the market was closed yesterday, and the major index futures were down over 2.2% during truncated trading.

So actually, compared to yesterday, the market is up quite nicely.

The only other winner: The dollar, thanks to the huge Swiss National Bank intervention, which might induce more European safe-haven flows to come to dollars, rather than Swiss Franc.

Meanwhile, this headline from Dow Jones just came out: "Bernanke Letter: Europe Credit Event Could Hit Many Markets, Financial Firms - Fed Closely Monitoring Developments In Europe"

Gold is down big now, having had a classically bonkers day of action.

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Dow Off 95 Points, Stocks On Track To Break The 4-Day Streak

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Markets have been up and down today, as they have for the past three days. The Dow was up 100 points early and is now down near 100. NASDAQ off 1% too.

Economic data has been mediocre, without any big hits or misses. Initial claims fell slightly less than expected, as did productivity, while unit labor costs were up. The ISM index surprisingly came in above the contraction threshold. Construction spending was worse than expected.

Everyone's waiting on the big jobs report tomorrow.

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China Stocks Soar, Gold Tumbles, Apple Only Down 5% (GLD, SPY)

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The Global Dow is up 4% since Monday in a great week for stocks.

Today's rally in Asia was spurred by record profits for Bank of China and signs that Beijing was increasing spending. Chinese rail stocks among other surged on news that Shanghai would spend $3.6 billion on new subway lines, according to Bloomberg.

Shanghai is up nearly 3%, leading other Asian markets.

European markets are also higher, except for the FTSE which has lost early gains. European CDS are narrowing, with Spain and Italy closing by 16 and 15 basis points. Greek is a different story, with Athens falling to new lows and the 2-year bond at a record 44.34% yield.

US futures are roughly flat, except for the NASDAQ which reflects a 4-5% decline for Apple.

Meanwhile gold has lost $200 in three days.

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